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    Seasonal Trends and Patterns in Commodity Futures Markets

    11 September 2025

    Seasonal Futures Spread Trading: Strategies for Success

    DraftKings has some specific futures I’ve never come across before, one being Season High Totals. For example, the ‘Regular Season Total Highest Individual Passing Game’ line is set at 490.5 yards. There is no player name attached; it can be any player to reach that threshold, and the bet is set in an over/under capacity. You can bet on Highest Interceptions Thrown and Highest Passing Touchdowns similarly. This type of market is something interesting and different, as most sportsbooks lean more towards the player props futures in categories like this.

    Successful futures betting is about identifying teams that are underrated or overrated by the public and oddsmakers. College football futures betting is all about predicting tomorrow’s headlines today. Here, we have a list of the favorite NFL futures from the 10 hosts who participated, but we encourage you to watch one of our most exciting and compelling shows in the network’s history. However, most sportsbooks (including FanDuel and DraftKings) offer an early cash-out option for futures bets. FanDuel’s easy navigation and user intuitiveness really gets the ball rolling (or throwing) for me. As you enter the main NFL page, you’ll notice all the different types of futures bets FanDuel has to offer on a convenient horizontal carousel.

    It is the only month of the year with a negative average return in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. It is basically a coin flip as to whether the month has finished higher or lower than it started. Most other months move up a higher percentage of the time, and have a higher average return. The about-face in policy was a general case of product supply meeting demand, along with a business benefit for the wagering outlets. Sportsbooks get plenty of free marketing on the rare occasions such parlays connect, while still holding a significant house edge on such wagers. For instance, the Kansas City Chiefs opened the 2024 NFL season with odds of around +600 to win the Super Bowl.

    The whole thing is then statistically evaluated over different time frames. This results in evaluations of average monthly returns and average weekly returns respectively. Supply and demand are not always responsible for seasonal price cycles. It should be carefully analyzed which events, e.g. 2007, caused the wheat price to explode (Fig. 2). However, they offer a useful tool to predict future trends and price developments. You can create charts for all futures markets and compare them at different time intervals.

    We explore what futures bets are, how they work and how bettors can approach them

    These patterns emerge from recurring behaviors in financial markets tied to annual events calendars. Real value exists when bettors truly believe, based on their own data, research and analysis that the odds on a particular team are richer than what should be offered. Other popular bets in the basketball futures market include odds on Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year. Popular season-long, team-based wagers include odds on every team to make or miss the playoffs, as well as the winner for each division and conference. Futures sports betting is great for bettors who won’t want to risk much. If you bet on a team to win the NBA championship, you can sweat every game that team plays without worrying about whether they cover the point spread or hit the over/under.

    At the end of each trading week, we evaluate and document all implemented trades in a publicly available trading statistic, ensuring complete transparency. As it was mentioned earlier, a trading system based only on statistical data is most likely to fail. Although certain patterns repeat themselves over and over again, the stock exchange is not the place Punxsutawney, a town from the film “Groundhog day”, or an endlessly repeating GIF. You can also see the influence of seasonal demand on price development, which we mentioned earlier.

    Diversifying across multiple teams, players or leagues can mitigate that risk. The end-to-end nature of NBA games means basketball betting is fast-paced, with markets available on individual player performance, point spreads, points totals, and much roobet game more. A trader could buy stock index ETFs (such as SPY or IVV) during seasonally strong months if the ETFs start rising.

    Best Seasonal Trades: Ultimate Guide to Market Timing

    Such a situation is particularly evident in markets with strong energy futures seasonality, such as heating oil or gasoline. This technique is particularly useful in metals futures trading, where seasonality often aligns with industrial demand. Below is a futures bet I just placed on Aryna Sabalenka to win the Women’s Australian Open, for 5.50 odds. Another cool long-term market in tennis betting is forecasting the top 4 players at the end of the season.

    The Role of Technical Analysis in Seasonal Hedging

    The primary trading hours naturally differ from one country to another due to contrasting time zones. During this period, the total value locked in DeFi platforms increased dramatically, leading to a surge in Ethereum’s price from approximately $230 in June to over $480 by September. This trend was driven by heightened interest and investment in DeFi, showcasing how seasonal patterns can emerge from specific market phenomena. Keep an eye on offseason moves like trades, draft picks and coaching changes to learn more about underrated teams or players. A mid-tier team with a new coach might outperform expectations and be great value compared to the big name favorites. Timing is everything – odds can change quickly due to injuries or unexpected trends, so smart bettors can pounce.

    When you bet the point spread or total of a game with -110 odds, you will receive close to a double-your-money payout if you win. You don’t have to worry about point spreads or totals when betting on futures. Futures odds give you an idea of which teams are most likely to win championships and are simple for beginning bettors to follow. Yes, the main futures markets like Super Bowl champion and MVP will still be available to bet on. Some player props, like regular-season rushing line totals for players, will not be. Commodity markets follow strong and consistent seasonal price trends.

    By strategically trading winter and summer spreads, traders can take advantage of these predictable seasonal trends and enhance their profitability. Common technical indicators used in seasonal futures spread trading include Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci retracement levels, which can signal potential price reversals. Incorporating these indicators into analysis helps traders better predict price movements and enhance trading strategies. Understanding these patterns can lead to more effective investment strategies and better alignment with market cycles. Identifying crypto seasonal patterns involves a systematic approach to analyzing historical price movements and trading volumes over specific periods.

    Bettors who anticipated that kind of instant improvement pounced on USC futures early in the season and were rewarded with a near-playoff campaign. That kind of schedule set-up can pave the way for hitting the over on a win total. When it comes to futures, who a team plays (and where) can be just as important as who’s on the roster. Occasionally you’ll see a flat number like 9 or 10; in that case, if the team wins exactly that many, the bet might push and you get your money back. The sportsbook sets a number for each team, and you choose over or under that number of wins. We’ll share real examples (the good and the bad), simple strategies to spot value, and tips on timing your bets.

    Natural gas prices typically rise in the winter months (December to February) due to increased heating demand and decline in the summer when demand drops. Conversely, crude oil prices often increase during the summer (June to August) as driving season boosts gasoline consumption. When we talk about seasonal patterns in futures, we’re referring to certain conditions and events that repeat annually. Perhaps the most obvious of these is the annual cycle of weather from warm to cold and back to warm.

    Maintaining a proactive approach to learning helps traders remain competitive and responsive to market dynamics. Staying updated with industry news and reports is crucial for making informed trading decisions and adapting strategies effectively. Trade With the Pros LLC (“TWP”) is a financial education provider for customers looking to build the skills and proficiency necessary for retail trading and investing in the financial markets. TWP is not a Broker-Dealer, an Investment Adviser, or any other type of business subject to regulation by the SEC, CFTC, state securities regulators or any “self-regulatory organization” (such as FINRA). This information is the more meaningful the longer the periods over which it is collected are.

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